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Today's Prices (Mon pm)
CME LIVESTOCK : Live Cattle: $176.925 (+1.75); Feeder Cattle: $234.725 (+3.775); Hogs: $78.80 (-0.70)
CME GRAINS: Corn: $3.8425 (+0.005); Wheat: $5.555 (+0.0225); Soybeans: $10.00 (+0.1075); Soybean Meal: $317.80 (-0.60)
STOCK UPDATE: Dow 30: 40,829.69 (+484.28); Nasdaq: 16,859.68 (+168.85); S&P 500: 5,465.37 (+56.95) (Stocks Climb on Strength in Chip Stocks)
ENERGY PRICES : Crude Oil: $68.58 (+0.91); Ethanol: $1.775 (-0.03); Natural Gas: $2.145 (-0.13) (Crude Closes Higher as Tropical Storm Francine Gathers Strength in Gulf of Mexico)
BOXED BEEF : Choice: $308.52 (-0.89); Select: $ 298.49 (+2.37); Ch/Se Spread: 10.03; Total Loads: 141 compared to 135 on Friday
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Closely Watching the Tropics; Heat and Fire Weather Concerns for the West (MON)
An increasing threats of heavy rain, strong winds, rip currents and storm surge are developing from tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico. Residents along and near the western and northern Gulf are urged to follow the latest forecast developments. Meanwhile, dangerous heat and elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue for portions of the West and Southwest.
Livestock Comments: Dr. Andrew Griffith
Fed cattle traded $2 lower on a live basis compared to last week. Prices were mainly $180 to $182 on a live basis. Dressed trade was mainly $286 to $288. The 5-area weighted average prices through Thursday were $181.15 live, down $2.59 compared to last week, and $287.46 dressed, down $3.06 from a week ago. A year ago, prices were $182.69 live and $289.41 dressed. The finished cattle market has officially fallen below year-ago price levels. It is difficult to imagine finished cattle prices are lower today than one year ago, but no one needs to imagine it since it has become reality. Live cattle will continue to lead feeder cattle lower as the feedlot cannot afford to bleed from both ends.
Weekly beef production down 11.1%, Cattle weights up 3 lbs from last week
Weekly beef production is estimated at 460.6 million pounds, down 11.1% from last week’s total of 517.8 million pounds, and down 0.3% from 461.8 million pounds this time last year. Year-to-date beef production stands at 18.1 billion pounds, a decrease of 1.2% compared to 18.3 billion pounds for the same period last year. Weekly cattle slaughter is estimated at 542,000 head, a decline from 611,000 last week and 559,000 head a year ago. Year-to-date, cattle slaughter has reached 21.4 million head, which is 4.1% lower than last year’s total of 22.4 million head. Live cattle weights are estimated at 1,391 pounds, up slightly from 1,388 pounds last week and 1,362 pounds a year ago. Dressed cattle weights are estimated at 851 pounds, up from 849 pounds last week and 828 pounds at this time last year.
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on August 1, 2024. The inventory was slightly above August 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.70 million head, 6 percent above 2023. Net placements were 1.65 million head. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 390,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 265,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 385,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 387,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 200,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 75,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.86 million head, 8 percent above 2023. Other disappearance totaled 56,000 head during July, 14 percent below 2023.
Thus far of Monday in the Southern Plains and Nebraska negotiated cash trade has been at a standstill. In the Western Cornbelt Negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on light demand. Last week in the Texas Panhandle week live FOB purchases traded from 180.00-181.00. Last week in Kansas week live FOB purchases traded at 181.00. Last week in Nebraska live FOB purchases traded from 180.00-181.00, while dressed delivered purchases traded at 288.00. Last in the Western Cornbelt week live FOB purchases traded from 180.00-183.00, while dressed delivered purchases traded from 286.00-288.00.
Parts of the eastern High Plains received precipitation. The areas of North Dakota and South Dakota in need of precipitation missed the 1 to 3 inches that fell in the central and eastern parts of the states. Abnormal dryness spread towards central Nebraska as the precipitation this week was very spotty. Southeast Nebraska into north-central and northeast Kansas saw both abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions expand despite precipitation this week, due to longer-term dryness. Southwestern Kansas has been seeing conditions continue to improve, leading to the trimming of abnormally dry, moderate and severe drought.
U.S. EXPORT SALES: Beef sales down 4% to 16.5K mt
Net sales of 16,500 MT for 2024 were down 4 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (7,700 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Taiwan (2,100 MT), South Korea (1,600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and China (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 14,900 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (3,600 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT), China (1,900 MT), Mexico (1,600 MT), and Taiwan (1,300 MT).
CATTLE SLAUGHTHER: Monday slaughter at 114K head, compared to 2K last week and 123K last year
THE BEEF READ: It’s a Pattern. Cash fed cattle prices and boxed beef prices both are likely heading lower this month. The fact that futures held the August low today and have rallied big, leaving a long tail, sets up a likely choppy futures trade for this week and also places a target on the back of today’s lows (THE BEEF)
DAILY DROP: The hide and offal value was estimated at $11.34, unch from Fri
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